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Episode 649: Our Most-Anticipated Storylines of 2015
Date April 3, 2015 Summary Sam and Ben discuss 3 storylines each that they are looking forward to for the 2015 season. Topics Ben picks the group of teams that took a leap forward in the offseason. The Cubs, Astros, Padres, White Sox. “Right now there does not seem to be many teams doing that tanking.” These teams were non-factors for many years, and now they look to be factors. Sam asks Ben if he has any projections that go against the conventional wisdom. Ben says no, and discusses how his predictions are boring. He notes that shocking, wacky predictions tend to be wrong more often in the long run, and, in the face of more potential clicks, still cannot bring himself to make polarizing predictions. Sam notes that people aren’t smarter than the projections, but it kinda sucks to just believe and follow what the projections say. It is more fun to have interesting opinions. Sam relates a story of how he was afraid to go to a therapist due to his fear of potentially lying to the therapist and to himself. Sam’s father was a psychologist, who told him that therapists are fine when people lie, because they can see when you’re lying, and that it’s just as much a part of their evaluation of you as when you’re telling the truth. Sam ties this back to the episode by telling Ben to stay true to himself when he makes projections, because that’s what the readers want. Sam says he has one division where he deviates from the projected standings. His prediction is: # White Sox # Indians # Tigers # Royals # Twins Ben does not know how you can’t pick the Nationals or the Dodgers to win the World Series. Sam comments on how picking teams to win divisions can be misleading, as it ignores the relative probabilities of each team winning and just presents the most likely team to win, regardless of how high that team’s odds to win are. Sam’s first storyline are the Red Sox and Yankee’s trajectories. He would like to see the Red Sox and the Yankees become competitive and get more aggressive in the market, and spend a bunch of money. He wants to see what would happen if the Red Sox replace the Yankees as the power broker of the AL. Ben is interested in if the NL can finally have a winning record against the AL in interleague. Ben is interested in if trends in strategy usage change. He’s interested if bunts against the shift increase. Ben is curious about the evolution in the shape of a strike zone, and how it will continue to evolve. He’s interested how teams will continue to build around the shape of the zone, like the Pirates, who have gotten low-strike throwers in order to take advantage of the lower zone, and the A’s, who Ben notes are rumored to have been accumulating Fly-Ball hitters who can hit the low strike best. He says that Rob Manfred will possibly adjust the strike zone. He notes that the decline in offense observed in the last few years is due to the expansion of the strike zone. Sam is interested in Statcast. He doesn’t know exactly what it is. When, where, how. He thinks it will cause a sudden, massive change, or it might change nothing. He doesn’t know. Ben is not optimistic about getting any data that can be used for analysis. Sam cuts in and mentions the Banished to the Pen EW tournament, and stumps for D-Backs Headlines over Webb-Albers. Ben says that he voted for Webb-Albers but does not officially endorse Webb-Albers, telling the listeners to vote how they want. Ben is interested in Mike Trout, because he is the best player in baseball. He is unsure whether the high-fastball Trout narrative will continue, whether he will succeed or fail. He is also interested in Bryce Harper, as it’s a bit of a make-or-break year for people predicting him to be a monster. Sam says he expects Trout to produce 30 more war from that point on compared to Harper. Sam is interested to see if the Dodgers can continue to have success with a pitching staff that is so injury prone. They discuss whether Brett Anderson’s new-found durability is an indication whether the Dodgers have figured something out about pitcher health. Intro (Smash Mouth, "Story of My Life") Banter - Banter about the style implications of colons. - Update on various EW drafts. Sam won the odds movers draft. Ben is in the lead for ‘most WAR for under-25 players over X years’ draft. Jacoby Ellsbury home run projection Links * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-649/ Category:Episodes